According to The Wall Street Journal, despite the turmoil in the Middle East, gasoline prices in the US are expected to be cheaper this summer compared to last year, providing relief for drivers and household expenses. Experts believe that as long as crude oil supplies remain ample, gas prices are unlikely to surge significantly even if conflicts arise.

Expectations for Stable Prices: Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the national average gasoline price is currently $3.21 per gallon, which is 23 cents cheaper than the same time last year. This decrease is mainly driven by sufficient supply. Even with heightened geopolitical tensions due to conflicts between Israel and Iran, gas prices remain lower than levels before the outbreak of hostilities. The international benchmark Brent crude price dropped by $5.53 per barrel following Iran's retaliatory attack on a US military base in Qatar, marking the largest single-day decline since 2022, indicating that the market anticipates this military action will not affect tankers and energy facilities.

Future Price Stability: Brent crude prices fell to $67.14 per barrel this week, suggesting that despite sporadic clashes, the ceasefire agreement brokered by the US is initially proving stabilizing. Analysts predict that oil prices will remain stable in the coming weeks unless the situation in the Middle East worsens dramatically. GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, stated that if the conflict does not escalate, gasoline prices should remain in the range of $3 to $3.20 per gallon, with expectations that even if conditions deteriorate, prices would only rise by about 15 cents. He noted, "There are currently no clear signs that oil prices will experience wild fluctuations this summer."

Increasing Oil Supply to Keep Prices Down: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has recently continued to raise production, combined with US domestic production nearing historical highs, which will continue to suppress upward pressure on prices. Analysts expect oil prices to trend lower in the second half of the year, reflecting that capacity growth has outstripped demand.

Impact on Consumer Sentiment: The decrease in gas prices has far-reaching effects on consumer sentiment. A survey by the National Association of Convenience Stores found that over two-thirds of drivers are willing to spend an additional five minutes driving to save five cents per gallon. Statistics from the American Automobile Association (AAA) show that several cities, including Fort Wayne in Indiana, Tucson in Arizona, and Marquette in Michigan, have seen significant decreases in gasoline prices this year. In Chicago, prices are even 52 cents lower compared to the same period last year. Americans' enthusiasm for road trips has also increased.

Overall Demand Analysis: Although overall driving distances are rebounding, the government projects that gasoline demand this summer will still be slightly lower than last year due to improved fuel efficiency in vehicles. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, low gas prices have helped maintain the resilience of the US economy. So far this year, stable energy prices have provided critical support for cooling inflation and sustaining consumer spending, which has been a key factor in allowing households some budget relief.