The latest Rasmussen Report indicates that if the midterm elections were held today, the Democrats would slightly lead the Republicans with a 45% to 44% vote share. The survey was conducted between May 14-15 and 18, 2025, involving 1,012 likely voters, with a sampling error of ±3 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.

The results show that 93% of respondents stated they are likely to vote in next year’s midterm elections, with 73% indicating they are very likely to do so. Among those who are 'very likely' to vote, 48% would cast their ballots for Democrats, while 45% would vote for Republicans.

Additionally, 73% of respondents believe it matters which party controls Congress, while 15% think it makes little difference, and 12% are unsure. Among those believing party control is important, Democrats have a slight lead with 48% to 47% over Republicans.

Among voters, 88% of Democrats plan to vote for their party's congressional candidates, and 85% of Republicans would do the same. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 39% would support Republican candidates, 35% would vote for Democrats, and 21% would back third-party candidates.

Among female voters, 49% support Democrats while 38% support Republicans; among male voters, 49% back Republicans and 41% support Democrats. Among high-income voters earning over $200,000, 53% support Democrats, while 48% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 support Republicans and 40% support Democrats.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris last year, 81% say they are very likely to vote in the upcoming midterms, while 73% of those who voted for Donald Trump say the same. Most voters believe that former officials from the White House are attempting to cover up President Biden’s cognitive issues, and they believe the media is also involved in the cover-up.