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U.S. GDP and Inflation Outlook: Focus on NVIDIA Earnings and FOMC Minutes

U.S. GDP and Inflation Outlook: Focus on NVIDIA Earnings and FOMC Minutes

Next week, global attention will shift to a series of key economic data from the U.S., including GDP revisions, PCE inflation indicators, and the FOMC meeting minutes. Projections suggest that economic growth may be slowing, while inflationary pressures persist due to tariff uncertainties.

In corporate earnings, although the earnings season is nearing its end, NVIDIA's quarterly results will still be a focal point for investors. Analysts have high expectations for NVIDIA, predicting revenues to reach $43.38 billion, a substantial increase of 66% year-over-year. Adjusted net income is expected to be $21.29 billion or $0.87 per share. However, sales pressure in the Chinese market remains a significant risk, as NVIDIA has previously warned of costs potentially reaching as high as $5.5 billion.

The second estimate of the U.S. first-quarter GDP shows a seasonally adjusted annual decline of 0.3%, marking the first decrease since the first quarter of 2022. However, many analysts believe this initial estimate underestimates the economic growth potential. Actual final sales to domestic private purchasers in the first quarter still grew by 3.0%, indicating resilient domestic demand.

Market attention will be on the PCE price index, which is preferred by the Fed, set to be released on Friday. March data indicated a slowing overall PCE and core PCE annual growth rate. Yet, the latest S&P Global Flash US PMI data for May suggests that U.S. price pressures are rising, contrary to the general downward trend seen in G4 economies. If April's PCE data shows inflation pressures rising again, it will heighten concerns regarding sustained inflation. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes are expected to provide deeper insights into the last policy meeting where rates were held steady and the pace of balance sheet reductions was slowed.

In Europe, preliminary inflation data from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain will be released, which will help assess the future policy path of the European Central Bank. Additionally, in Asia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea will announce their interest rate decisions, with expectations of rate cuts in both countries.