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Taiwan Fact-Checking Center Debunks '2025 Earthquake Prediction'

Taiwan Fact-Checking Center Debunks '2025 Earthquake Prediction'

Recently circulating claims about a 'July 5, 2025, earthquake prediction in Japan' have generated panic in regions like Taiwan and Hong Kong. The Taiwan Fact-Checking Center states that this claim originates from the work of Japanese manga artist Ryuju Ryo, titled 'The Future I See: Complete Edition.' Although Ryu has accurately predicted historical events in the past, the center emphasizes that many claims surrounding this topic lack factual basis.

Initially, Ryu's predictions circulated within communities interested in fantasy, horror, and urban legends, but gained traction after several of his predictions appeared accurate. According to Japanese media outlet NHK, discussions around earthquake predictions intensified in 2023, especially through platforms such as YouTube and TikTok in Japan, where predictions proliferated from March to April 2025. In Taiwan, local influencers discussing urban legends further amplified the spread of this narrative.

Data from the Taiwan Fact-Checking Center indicates that related rumors surged on social media platforms commonly used by the Taiwanese community starting from mid-2024, showing a notable rise in reports around March this year. Many media outlets have subsequently followed up on these reports. Furthermore, the center noted an increase in related rumors beginning February this year, peaking between April and May, reflecting widespread public anxiety about potential earthquakes.

In relation to disaster predictions, Huang Hsin-Hua, a research fellow at the Academia Sinica Institute of Earth Science, explained that significant earthquakes primarily occur at tectonic plate boundaries, usually in areas such as trenches where intense pressure can lead to earthquakes and tsunamis. Past scientific evidence suggests that oceanic plates rarely experience seismic activity that could result in catastrophic tsunamis as described in predictions. Analyzing the comic's claims, writer Pan Chang-Chih noted that while the manga suggested disasters occurring between Japan and the Philippines, the actual likelihood of such massive earthquakes without preceding signs, such as volcanic activity, is minimal.

Furthermore, the Fact-Checking Center stresses that there are currently no technologies capable of accurately predicting earthquake timing, seabed ruptures, or massive tsunamis. Many videos circulating online are AI-generated or feature fictional expert testimonies, even using fake maps to simulate disaster paths, perpetuating further panic. Ryuju Ryo himself has also urged the public not to panic, advising individuals to rely on the insights of experts.