The U.S.-China economic talks concluded in London on the 11th, with President Trump announcing that a trade framework with China is largely complete, which includes China pre-supplying magnets and rare earths. However, former legislator Guo Zhengliang stated in the online program "Liang Zi Li Xue" that the U.S. is fundamentally helpless against China's rare earth controls, stressing that "Trump hasn't learned his lesson".

Guo pointed out that the U.S. has underestimated the threat of China's rare earth controls, resulting in its lag in mineral extraction and refining technology; even though the U.S. has its own minerals, it cannot effectively extract them. The U.S.-China negotiations seem to be stuck again on the rare earth issue, as the U.S. is nearing a shortage of rare earths and is anxiously requesting China to loosen its rare earth controls, while China, on the other hand, demands the U.S. lift semiconductor sanctions.

This situation recalls the period from 2010 to 2014 when China imposed rare earth controls on Japan. Japan, in alliance with the U.S. and Europe, filed a lawsuit with the WTO, resulting in a defeat for China, which had to reopen its rare earth exports in 2015. Guo analyzed that the reason the U.S. isn't following the same procedure this time is that China has learned from past lessons and adopted new strategies regarding rare earth export controls, making it difficult for the U.S. to file a lawsuit with the WTO.

He added that in 2023, China accounted for 63% of global rare earth extraction and 92% of processing. Therefore, the U.S. is significantly dependent on China for rare earths, which is related to Trump's failure to understand the implications of this threat. Although the U.S. has numerous mineral resources, it lacks production; for instance, potential lithium reserves in the U.S. are estimated at 94.8 million tons, but the actual lithium production in 2013 was only 615 tons. Similarly, magnesium oxide production in the U.S. is 35 million tons, yet the yielded minerals amount to only 350,000 tons.

Guo stated that the U.S. is not devoid of rare earth reserves but lacks output and that the U.S. lacks both extraction companies and refining technology patents. This is due to the government not investing sufficient focus on the rare earth industry, resulting in unresolved issues. The U.S.'s extraction and refining technologies lag significantly behind those of China, compounded by strict environmental regulations and insufficient processing facilities, leading to low investment incentives. Guo emphasized that this time, the U.S. must negotiate seriously with China regarding the rare earth situation and cannot rely solely on WTO litigation, as the Chinese government has become well-versed in legalities and is now adept at integrating national rare earth production. Trump will likely need to pragmatically offer solutions for a compromise with China, such as lifting significant technology sanctions in exchange for China easing rare earth export controls.