Are Signs of Economic Crisis Emerging in the U.S.? Expert Analyzes Three Major Risk Indicators

As the U.S. faces tariff impacts and the outbreak of the Iran war, many investors are becoming concerned about the future of the American economy. In the online program 'Wind Direction Dragon and Phoenix Match', seasoned media personality Chen Fengxin pointed out that the economic fundamentals in the U.S. may be showing signs of weakening. Although it has not yet entered a phase of negative growth, investors should remain vigilant.
Even though the new job figures for May came in at 137,000, surpassing the expected 120,000, Chen believes there may be some inflation in these numbers. She noted that employment market data is being continuously revised down, potentially leading the actual number to be around 100,000. Additionally, the number of new unemployment insurance claims appears to be slightly increasing, indicating a more cautious hiring trend.
The addition of 100,000 new jobs is concerning for investors, especially as the number of continuously claimed unemployment benefits is also on the rise. Surveys from institutions like the University of Michigan show that many citizens feel it is becoming more difficult to find a job. These phenomena indicate that the heat in the job market is cooling, and the risk of layoffs is increasing.
On the consumer front, U.S. retail sales in May showed a significant decline due to consumer confidence waning. Sales decreased by 0.9% compared to April. Major decreases were seen in automotive and real estate sectors as high interest rates have made consumers more reserved about large purchases. Chen noted that as consumers are tightening their belts in light of economic uncertainties, the retail market in the U.S. may continue to contract.
The Federal Reserve recently held a meeting, maintaining interest rates but leaving many uncertainties regarding potential rate cuts in the future. Their economic forecasts have once again revised the growth rate down to 1.3% from a previous 1.7%. At the same time, inflation remains high, making it difficult for the Fed to lower rates to stimulate the economy. Therefore, as several indicators suggest a deteriorating economic environment, the market's lack of response raises concerns for investors.