This Week's Highlights: US Nonfarm Payroll Report and Major Economic PMI Data
This week’s key international financial events include the release of the latest US nonfarm payroll report, the announcement of purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from major economies, and the looming deadline for Trump’s tariffs. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Chairman Powell, will make important statements that will provide crucial insights to the markets.
1. US June Nonfarm Payroll Report
The US nonfarm payroll report for June is set to be released on Thursday (July 3), with market expectations of around 110,000 new jobs added. If labor market indicators show significant weakness, the Fed may move to cut rates as soon as July. The market is also poised to observe the JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday, the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday, and the initial jobless claims data released on Thursday.
2. Major Economies PMI
This week will see the release of PMI data from major economies including the US, eurozone, Japan, and China. Notably, the US will announce the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, which investors will closely monitor to gauge the impact of US tariff policies and political uncertainties on the economy.
3. Trump's Tariff Deadline
President Trump's deadline for reciprocal tariffs is now only 10 days away, with limited time for negotiations between the White House and other nations. The timeline for a trade framework agreement keeps being delayed, presenting serious challenges to market confidence amid signs of economic deterioration in the US. The White House has stated that July 9 is no longer a critical deadline, with the possibility of negotiations extending until Labor Day on September 1.
4. Fed Officials' Speeches
On Tuesday, central bank governors worldwide will hold a panel discussion, including Fed Chairman Powell. Investors will focus on Powell's remarks for insights into future interest rate policies. Alongside Powell, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will also be speaking. Recently, President Trump has called for rate cuts and is contemplating announcing a successor to Powell, putting downward pressure on the dollar index, which has reached a three-year low. However, according to LSEG data, the current market only reflects about a 20% chance of a rate cut in July, with expectations leaning towards September.
