According to a report by CNBC, U.S. President Trump threatened on Friday (23rd) that if Apple (AAPL-US) does not relocate its iPhone production lines back to the U.S., a 25% tariff would be imposed on its models manufactured in India, shocking the market.

However, several analysts indicate that Apple is unlikely to adjust its production location and would rather absorb the tariff costs than face the high expenses and technical challenges of moving production back to the U.S.

On Truth Social, Trump stated that he had "long ago informed Apple CEO Cook that all iPhones sold in the U.S. should be produced in the U.S., not in India or elsewhere." He expressed dissatisfaction with Apple's recent acceleration of relocating its main iPhone models to production in India, especially after Cook confirmed this strategy during an earnings call earlier this month.

Analysts generally believe that Apple will not easily move its production lines back to the U.S. Notable supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo points out that rather than bear the cost of rebuilding the supply chain and labor, Apple is more likely to "absorb the 25% tariff," which would have a relatively low impact on profits. UBS analyst David Vogt also estimates that the tariff would only reduce Apple's earnings per share by $0.51, making the overall impact "limited."

Analysts also note that the U.S. lacks sufficient labor, supply chains, and manufacturing technology, making it nearly impossible to realize iPhone production in the U.S. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives bluntly states that the notion of a "U.S.-made iPhone" is simply a "fantasy that cannot be realized."

Apple began producing some models in India in 2017 and has gradually included the latest flagship models in local production. Foxconn (2317-TW) is investing $1.5 billion to build a new factory in India, which is expected to take on more assembly tasks for higher-end models in the future.

While Trump exempted most tech products (including iPhone and Mac) from tariffs on imports from China in April this year, it remains unclear whether models from India will also receive exemptions in the future. Analysts indicate that the Trump administration may impose individual tariffs on specific countries. Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers believes that even if a 25% tariff is implemented, Apple may choose to raise its prices in the U.S. to maintain its approximately 41% gross margin, with price increases potentially ranging between $100 and $300 per device.

Apple did not respond to Trump's statements. Some analysts believe that Apple might still have a chance to negotiate with the Trump administration or challenge the tariffs through legal means. As of press time, Apple's (AAPL-US) stock price fell 2.50% on Friday, temporarily reporting at $196.33 per share.