Even if Lee Jae-myung wins this time, the election process highlights his empty rhetoric and the exhaustion of his strategy, especially given the significant variables in the international situation following the election. This presidential by-election resembles a sudden political airdrop. The fallout from Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment is still unresolved, yet the election was hastily held on June 3, leaving parties unprepared and candidates without a strategy.

The nation appears to have entered a state of 'unprepared democratic experiment,' where not only the quality of the election is declining but also exposing the vacuous discourse and strategic exhaustion of the political elite. Even Lee Jae-myung, who was considered the most likely victor, cannot hide his fatigue in this election battle. As a survivor of the last election, he now seems to struggle to maintain his footing.

Three years ago, he challenged the system as a representative of the common people, targeting anti-chaebol and anti-corruption rhetoric that resonated with young voters, but now he has reduced his campaign to remnants of 'power transition' and 'punishing Yoon Suk-yeol,' resulting in repetitive political discourse and the loss of both mobilization power and imagination.

This by-election appears to have devolved into a mere echo of the desire to punish Yoon Suk-yeol. More critically, he has missed the strategic opportunity presented by the collapse of the conservative camp. Voters are eager for a change in the status quo, but Lee Jae-myung's response does not involve institutional reforms or economic innovation but rather the delayed delivery of past policies. His campaign feels like an unwavering march toward a 'predetermined victory.'

Most concerning is that he is rapidly losing support among young voters. In 2022, he managed to solidify some support from those in their 20s and 30s, but now he is being overtaken by Lee Jun-seok's rhetoric on 'generational revolution' and 'youth entrepreneurship.' As young people proclaim, 'The Han River miracle has nothing to do with me,' the anxieties surrounding modern deprivation, unemployment, and soaring housing prices render Lee Jae-myung's language weak and ineffective. He has lost not only the ability to define the narrative but also his capacity to speak to the future.

This is an election without a true winner. The conservative faction is imploding and the overall landscape resembles a competition within ruins. Should Lee Jae-myung ultimately win, it will be through following the path of least resistance, acquiring power not by persuading voters but by picking up the pieces left behind by his opponents' mistakes. The real pressure test is yet to come.

First and foremost, there are the domestic political minefields. Despite the progressive camp controlling the National Assembly, the constitutional disputes left in the wake of impeachment and institutional vacuums are bound to spark a new round of power struggles. If Lee Jae-myung seeks reform, it may further intensify factional conflicts, complicating the political recovery process.

Additionally, there are significant pressures from the international realities. As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, the Russia-Ukraine war persists, and tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, the return of Trump will only increase pressure on South Korea. Lee Jae-myung has advocated for 'strategic autonomy,' but the reality is that U.S.-Korea relations are tightly bound by tariffs, military cooperation, and supply chains. Whether he can find a balance between dependency on the U.S. and risks from China remains a major variable.

This election may provide a brief respite for the progressive camp, but it also reflects the deep-seated ailments of Korean democracy: elite paralysis, party weakness, and voter fatigue. If this victory again misses the opportunity for reform, then this by-election will not just be hasty, but will mark a critical point in the collapse of trust in democracy. Politics may be delayed, but the disappointment of the people will not wait.