South Korea held its 21st presidential election on the 3rd, with results now confirmed, potentially leading to significant changes in the Korean Peninsula and geopolitical dynamics. This election was necessitated by the premature resignation of the former president, Yoon Suk-yeol, following a constitutional impeachment, thereby affecting the deep-seated structure of domestic politics. With 93% of votes reported, Lee Jae-myung has won approximately 49% of the vote, anticipated to defeat another key candidate, Kim Moon-soo, who garnered 42%.

The election outcome means that Lee will enter the "post-martial law era" without a transitional period, but his victory poses a new set of challenges. He will have to rebuild trust in a divided society, address governance fractures, cope with global economic pressures, and negotiate complex diplomatic issues. His effectiveness in leading a comprehensive transformation of the system and direction will determine South Korea's stability moving forward.

Domestically, Lee must tackle the dual urgency of healing societal rifts and restoring trust, while immediately taking control of the administration, which limits the traditional transition period. In terms of economic policies, he seeks to strengthen social welfare and promote public employment; however, without sufficient tax reforms and stable financial resources, fiscal imbalance may occur. Furthermore, his advocacy for "wealth redistribution" has already raised concerns among business sectors, suggesting his policy implementation may face resistance from established interests.

Lee has also pledged to reform fertility and youth issues, with South Korea's fertility rate projected to drop to an all-time low of 0.75 in 2024. His campaign promises include basic income for youth and public rental housing initiatives, but actualizing these require approval from local governments and the National Assembly. Failure to implement actionable, institutional solutions will significantly undermine support and exacerbate youth outmigration and low birth rates.

In terms of foreign policy, Lee's attempts to pivot towards North Korea and re-establish dialogue through humanitarian aid and climate cooperation will be contentious. If he fails to present substantive reciprocal measures, he risks appearing to concede unilaterally and could provoke backlash from conservative factions within Korea.

As the U.S.-South Korea alliance may face uncertainties with President Trump's expected return to power, Lee must navigate this delicate balance carefully without compromising his sovereignty diplomacy.

Ultimately, should Lee fail to secure a majority in the National Assembly, his governance will encounter substantial legislative barriers. The dynamic of political rivalry could deteriorate into a "power without governance" scenario, potentially resulting in widespread unrest and the normalization of judicial politicization.